Transitioning to zero-emission trucks will be rocky road

September 10, 2024
Trucks line up at the fron gate of the port of Los Angeles
The front gate of a container terminal in the Port of Los Angeles. The race is on to transition to zero-emission short-haul trucks that serve the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, but it won’t be won without major changes. (Photo: halbergman via iStock)

By: USC Price School and the Los Angeles Business Council

Trucking companies that carry cargo on short trips for the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are going to have a tough time switching to zero-emission trucks to meet state regulatory requirements by 2035. And the transition is unlikely to happen on time without significant regulatory changes and infrastructure improvements, according to a new study by faculty and graduate students from the USC Price School of Public Policy.

However, if the companies can make the transition, it would be another milestone in California’s goal of net-zero carbon pollution by 2045. The California Air Resources Board is contributing to that effort through its Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) Regulation, which mandates the phase-in of zero-emission trucks for drayage fleets, which haul goods between ports, railyards, and distribution centers – by 2035. 

Zero-emission trucks don’t emit carbon dioxide, the leading cause of climate change, because they are powered by either electricity or hydrogen.

“There remains a significant gap between the current market and the infrastructure needed to comply with the ACF timeline,” according to the study, Navigating California’s Transition to Zero-Emission Drayage Trucks. “However, if the transition is successfully implemented, the state can become the model for how to navigate a critical economic and environmental challenge, asserting its leadership in creating new green markets.”

The study, which was commissioned by the Los Angeles Business Council’s LABC Institute, found several hurdles to replacing the current fleet of nearly 24,000 diesel powered drayage trucks within 10 years. These include the high cost of zero-emission vehicles, the lack of electric charging and hydrogen fueling stations, and the prevalence of small trucking companies without the financial means to make the conversion.

The analysis indicated that 854 trucks – over 3% of the drayage fleet – would have to be retired in 2025, based on mileage and age limits set by ACF regulations. The study’s mid-range estimate shows the ports would need 31,684 battery-electric trucks by 2035 to be compliant.

Headshot of Marlon Boarnet
Marlon Boarnet

“This study quantifies just how new the zero-emission drayage market is, and how much work will need to be done in order to bring this important economic sector into compliance with state guidelines,” said Marlon Boarnet, Director of the METRANS Transportation Consortium  and one of the report’s authors. Boarnet is also a Professor at the USC Price School.

The report was also written by Genevieve Giuliano, Interim Dean of the USC Price School, and Price graduate students Clemens Pilgram, Ruoyu Chen, and Qifan Shao.

The San Pedro Bay port complex is a vital economic engine in the region, supporting over 165,000 jobs and generating $21.8 billion of direct business revenue to local service providers. Drayage is an essential link in the supply chain but also a major source of pollution.

“The stakes couldn’t be higher for the health of our economy and the health of communities near the ports and along transit corridors,” said Mary Leslie, President of the Los Angeles Business Council. “However, California has an extensive history of pioneering ambitious sustainability initiatives, and we see an immense opportunity for California to become a global leader in the sustainable supply chain.” 

The report outlines several recommendations to support the timely transition to zero-emission trucks. Among them: