Skip to content

USC Study Reveals Non-Voting Eligible Voters of Color Outnumber Victory Margins in Many Competitive 2024 Congressional Districts

A sign pointing to the location building for casting vote ballot in United States (istock)

The voting location for political polling place. A sign pointing to the location building for casting vote ballot in United States

Center for Inclusive Democracy research underscores tremendous potential of
mobilizing voters in tightly contested congressional races across the U.S.

A new national study from the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the USC Price School of Public Policy analyzing voter turnout in the 43 competitive U.S. congressional districts has found that in most of these districts, the number of eligible Asian-American, Black and Latino voters who did not vote in 2022 was greater than the victory margin in many of those districts’ House races—and often by a significant amount.

The report also found that among the competitive congressional districts analyzed, all showed voter turnout gaps between the general population and eligible voters of color. Across all districts, Asian-American, Black and Latino voters represented smaller shares of ballots cast than their proportionate share of eligible voters, despite often representing a significant segment of a district’s electorate.

“This research confirms that boosting turnout among voters of color in hotly contested congressional races could be the difference between victory or defeat for some House candidates,” said CID Director Mindy Romero and the study’s lead author. “With less than two weeks to go before the presidential election, campaigns and candidates should be doing whatever they can to get voters of color to the polls.”

Other findings in the report included:

  • In many 2024 competitive congressional districts, Asian-American, Black and Latino eligible voters represented larger shares of the district’s electorate in 2022 than their share of the national electorate.

  • Asian-American, Black, and Latino voters represented smaller shares of the actual voting population than their share of the eligible voter population in all competitive districts examined.

  • Asian-American, Black, and Latino Americans were underrepresented in the voting population in all competitive districts where they represented large shares of the eligible voter population.

“At least in part, the path to control the House of Representatives runs through the mobilization of voters of color,” added Romero. “Their participation would also mean greater representation of diverse viewpoints, perspectives and experiences in the electoral process.”

This year’s presidential election will be the first held since 2020 redistricting, a process that reshaped some congressional districts. The 43 districts deemed competitive in CID’s study – roughly 10 percent of the 435 total congressional districts – were based on the Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes state, federal and presidential elections. A substantial number of these competitive congressional districts are comprised of large proportions of Latino, Black and Asian-American voters.

Read the full report here.

Center for Inclusive Democracy (CID)

The Center for Inclusive Democracy (CID) is part of the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy. CID’s mission is to improve the social and economic quality of life in U.S. communities by producing non-partisan research that informs policy and on-the-ground organizing efforts through education and outreach for a more engaged, transparent and representative democracy. CID conducts pioneering research that explores voting behavior, civic engagement, as well as electoral and economic issues at the intersection of social justice and democracy.