We asked Adam Rose, a Professor (Research) at the USC Price School of Public Policy, about the link between climate change and the fires ravaging Los Angeles County this week. Rose is an expert in energy and environmental economics, among other topics. Here are his answers, which were lightly edited for clarity.
Q: Southern California has always experienced wildfires, but has climate change made them more frequent and devastating?
A: Yes, definitely. Climate change results in a vicious drought/wildfire circle. While most people think of climate change in terms of long-term manifestations, such as higher temperatures and sea-level rise, it also dramatically increases climate variability.
This means we have more periods of increased – and some unprecedented – rainfall, partly because warmer air carries more moisture. And that increases the amount of vegetation. Then we have periods of much lower – and some unprecedented – rainfall (droughts), which dries out the vegetation, making it a tinderbox.
Q: How does climate change worsen wildfires?
A: In addition to the answer above, climate change can contribute to:
- warmer/drier air, which enhances burning;
- stronger winds, which fan the flames and reduce the ability of planes and helicopters to fight fires;
- challenges our water resources for fighting fires.
Q: How do wildfires worsen climate change?
A: Wildfires put more carbon into the air, and this increases greenhouse gases emissions, which warm our planet. Interestingly, wildfires reduce warming because they shield/reflect sun rays hitting the earth. But that is only temporary.
Q: If you could make one policy change to stem climate change, what would it be?
A: Reduce fossil fuel consumption by automobiles. Also, greatly reduce it in power plants, unless we come up with a good form of carbon capture and storage.
Q: There has been increasing discussion in the scientific community about geoengineering to stem climate change. Can you explain what it is and its pros and cons?
A. Geoengineering refers to major tactics to deal with climate change, which are typically untried and untested and may have major negative side effects (messing with mother nature):
There are two major categories.
- Solar Radiation Modification (SRM), e.g., which entails injecting particles into the upper atmosphere that reflect solar radiation back into space. The adverse side effects, including negatively affecting the workings of satellites, are unknown.
- Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), e.g., preventing carbon from going up the smokestack and injecting it somewhere, such as depleted oil/gas wells and deep oceans. Adverse side effects could include the carbon bubbling up to the surface or otherwise damaging the ocean, or something similar on land.
